A new general election poll indicates Republican challenger, State Sen. John Braun, has opened an early lead over Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, underscoring growing political vulnerability for the two-term congresswoman heading into 2026. The district is seen as one of the most vulnerable heading into the midterms.
According to a survey conducted by co/efficient from April 25-29, Braun leads Gluesenkamp Perez by seven points in a head-to-head matchup, with 41% of likely voters backing Braun compared to 34% for Perez. Another 26% remain undecided, suggesting significant movement could still occur in the race.
DEVELOPING: Challenger John Braun (R) is leading incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D).
She is viewed unfavorably by 50% of voters, 49% of Independents, 46% of young voters & 1/3 of Democrats.
Additionally, Gov Bob Ferguson is a drag down ballot with only a 22% approval in the… pic.twitter.com/sPbiwqtMJT
— Ari Hoffman (@thehoffather) May 11, 2026
The poll suggests Braun’s advantage may have room to grow. While the Republican candidate already holds the lead, a majority of voters are still unfamiliar with him. Braun currently posts a 24% favorable rating against a 20% unfavorable rating, while 56% of respondents say they are unsure or have never heard of him.
By contrast, Gluesenkamp Perez enters the race carrying deeply negative favorability numbers. Half of voters surveyed view the incumbent unfavorably, while just 20% hold a favorable opinion of her, giving her a net image rating of -30 points.
The survey also highlights potential warning signs within Perez’s own coalition. The Democratic congresswoman is viewed unfavorably by 49% of independents and 46% of young voters. Even among Democrats, one-third report an unfavorable opinion of her.
Perhaps most notably, Gluesenkamp Perez appears to be struggling with Democratic base support. The poll finds she is receiving support from only 69% of Democratic voters on the congressional ballot, a number that could create major turnout concerns for Democrats in a competitive district.
The broader political environment in Washington’s 3rd District may also be benefiting Braun. The survey found only 22% of voters approve of the job Gov. Bob Ferguson is doing, while the Democratic Party brand in the district carries a net negative rating of 28 points.
In the district-wide generic ballot, Republicans and Democrats are nearly tied, with Republicans holding a slight edge among likely voters.
The poll surveyed 982 likely general election voters through mobile text responses and landline interviews. Results were weighted to match the district’s voting population and carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3.12 percentage points.
