Inside Elections has officially shifted Washington’s 3rd Congressional District from “Tilt Democratic” to “Toss Up,” the latest sign that the hotly contested race is moving in Republicans’ favor.
The nonpartisan election forecaster pointed directly to Perez’s weakness with her own party base and the district’s increasingly Republican lean.
“Democratic representative Marie Gluezenkamp Perez has ongoing issues with her base that won’t prevent her from getting through the top 2 primary, but it could make her race against state senator John Braun a little less comfortable in a district where Trump finished ahead of Kamala by three points,” Inside Elections wrote.
The rating change comes as multiple warning signs continue piling up for Perez heading into 2026.
A recent survey conducted by co/efficient found Braun leading Gluesenkamp Perez by seven points in a hypothetical general election matchup, 41% to 34%, with a large share of undecided voters still in play. The same poll showed Perez underwater politically, with 50% of voters viewing her unfavorably. Even more concerning for Democrats, the survey found Perez struggling with core supporters.
Republicans argue the growing backlash reflects frustration with Perez’s record and her alignment with Democratic leadership despite attempts to portray herself as politically moderate.
Campaign finance records have also become a growing issue for the congresswoman. A staggering 81% of Gluesenkamp Perez’s campaign contributions reportedly came from outside Washington state.
Meanwhile, critics point to Perez’s silence during one of the most controversial legislative fights in Olympia this year — Democrats’ push for a massive 9.9% state income tax increase proposal. While Washington families faced growing economic pressure, Perez said virtually nothing publicly as state Democrats advanced the tax hike agenda.
“The race rating shift, brutal poll numbers, collapsing approval ratings, and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez’s deafening silence as Washington Democrats pushed a 9.9% state income tax hike all paint the same picture: Perez is in serious trouble, and Washington families are done with her,” said NRCC spokesman Christian Martinez.
The broader political environment in Southwest Washington also continues moving in Republicans’ favor. Gov. Bob Ferguson’s approval numbers in the district remain weak, while the Democratic Party brand itself is deeply underwater among voters in WA-03.
